Interactive Decision Tool · SimplifyNumbers

Can This Growth Pay for Itself?

Connect unit order economics, payment lags, and a 13-week cash curve before committing capital to a new promotion, hiring, or volume expansion.

Financial Modeling Standard: Calculations use 4.333 equal weeks per month (52 weeks ÷ 12 months). Operating surplus excludes income tax and financing costs. Negative margins are explicitly highlighted. Scenario runs 100% locally in your browser.

Choose Your Primary Decision Goal

Select the commercial question you need to test. Each goal prioritises a different financial risk.

Take On More Orders

Will a volume expansion finance its own stock purchases and wage commitments before customer receipts clear?

Protect Cash Reserves

Identify the maximum customer payment delay or demand shock your existing cash balance can survive before breaching your safety buffer.

Sector, Currency & Volume Basis

Define your commercial setting. All amounts should be entered GST/VAT exclusive.

Industry Sector

Currency Symbol

Expected Monthly Orders / Units

orders / month

Unit Order Economics (Per Sale)

Follow the exact money on a single sale. Use the sliders or type precise figures into the boxes.

Net Selling Price (Ex-Tax)

Invoice or checkout price after discounts, excluding sales tax.

Direct Product / Job Cost (COGS)

Wholesale cost of goods, direct subcontractors, or raw materials per unit.

Fulfilment, Delivery & Payment Fees

Packaging, courier freight, merchant processing fees (e.g. 2.9%), and return allowances.

Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) per Order

Direct ad spend, agency fees, or commissions divided by total orders.

Calculated Unit Contribution Price − COGS − Fulfilment − CAC

$35.00 29.2% Contribution Margin

Cash Flow Timing & Fixed Overheads

Profit does not mean cash in the bank. Add your overhead obligations and payment timing gaps.

Opening Bank Balance

Cash currently available in your operating accounts.

Monthly Fixed Overheads & Payroll

Salaries, rent, software, and debt repayments.

Customer Collection Timing Lag

How many weeks before customer payments clear your bank?

Supplier Payment Timing

When do you pay for stock or subcontractor labor?

Upfront Capital / Stock Investment

Initial batch purchase, tooling, or setup cash required upfront (Week 0).

Safety Cash Buffer

The minimum cash reserve you refuse to breach under any scenario.

Stress Test: What If Things Don't Go to Plan?

Test how robust your growth plan is against real-world friction. Slide each stress factor to see the impact.

Demand Reduction

Orders come in slower than expected.

-20% volume

Direct Cost & Ad Spend Inflation

Ad costs increase or suppliers raise freight rates.

+15% costs

Additional Payment Delay

Key customers or platforms delay payment release.

+2 weeks delay

Real-Time Scenario Analysis

Your Decision Plan & Risk Dashboard

13-Week Horizon · Linear Weekly Flow

Unit Contribution $35.00 29.2% margin per sale

Monthly Operating Surplus +$2,250 Excludes tax & capex

Lowest Cash Point (Valley) $14,200 Occurs at Week 4

Buffer Status Breached Dips below $15,000 buffer

13-Week Cash Balance Trajectory

Baseline Curve Downside Stress Curve Safety Cash Buffer

Weeks 0 through 13. Assumes 4.333 weeks per month and linear operating outflows.

Your Plain-English Decision Rule & Stop Trigger

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Scheduled Decision Review: 14 Days from Today Framework: SimplifyNumbers Decision Standards

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